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Thai Business After Trump’s Policies: When the Economic Storm Begins from the White House
“Today, we must transform trade wars into trade peace. There will be no losers, but the world will be full of winners.”
– Prof. Dr. Wilert Phuriwat
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in early 2025 marked a major turning point for the global economy and international policy, particularly for Southeast Asia. The revival of the “America First” philosophy has prompted many countries — including Thailand — to urgently reassess their business and trade strategies.
To better understand these shifts, the Faculty of Commerce and Accountancy, Chulalongkorn University, hosted a seminar titled “Business During Trump” on May 2, 2025. Three academics from the fields of finance, marketing, and international business came together to analyze the implications and propose strategies for Thai enterprises navigating this new environment.
Countervailing Tariffs: From Trade Balance to GDP Pressure
Among Trump’s revived measures, the Reciprocal Tariff Policy has had one of the most immediate and far-reaching effects. This retaliatory measure directly targets countries with significant trade surpluses — including Thailand.
“If the United States imposes tariffs on Thailand’s trade surplus, this represents approximately $45 billion, or 10% of Thailand’s GDP.”
– Asst. Prof. Dr. Ratchai Silacharoen (Finance)
The consequences go beyond exports. The baht has become more volatile, investors have retreated from the stock market, and the private sector is increasingly holding cash as a safety buffer during this “risk-off” period of global uncertainty.
Building and Maintaining Brands in a Bipolar World
The turbulence of reverse globalization also extends to consumer sentiment. In this climate, marketing is not only about numbers — it’s about navigating polarized perceptions.
“Now, customers are not just buying products; they are also choosing sides. Brands associated with America may gain advantages in some markets but be boycotted in others.”
– Asst. Prof. Dr. Ek Phatthanakun (Marketing)
Brands in a Bipolar World: The A–B–C Concept
To help businesses adapt, Asst. Prof. Dr. Ek introduced the A–B–C (America–Bipolar–Consistency) model — a framework for understanding consumer behavior amid global political divides:
· A – America: A brand’s association with the United States now plays a direct role in shaping customer perceptions. “Made in the USA” can be a mark of prestige in some regions but a liability in others.
· B – Bipolar Customers: Consumers today are divided not into those who “like” and “ignore” — but those who “love” and “hate.” Neutrality is disappearing, and social media amplifies every sentiment. Brands must choose their position carefully.
· C – Consistency: Global consistency is a growing challenge. How can a brand remain credible when one market supports the U.S. while another opposes it?
“All brand communications must consider the entire world, not just one country.”
– Asst. Prof. Dr. Ek Phatthanakun
Back to Commerce: From the WTO to Closed Economies
From the perspective of international business, Trump’s return signifies more than tariffs — it marks a philosophical shift, turning backward to 16th century scheme.
“We may no longer be able to teach the WTO or free trade in the same way. The real question is now: ‘Why did the WTO fail?’”
– Assoc. Prof. Dr. Somchanok Phasakonjarat (Department of Commerce)
Trump strongly pushes mercantilism — promoting exports, limiting imports, and prioritizing domestic production and labour. Yet in today’s era of automation arose the question, is it possible that robots replace human?
For Thailand, additional scrutiny may come from “Made in China” products being re-labeled as Thai goods. This calls for heightened transparency and vigilance in maintaining trade integrity.
Proposal for Thai Businesses: Cooperation in Crisis
“Difficult times are a test of supply chain relationships. Don’t abandon each other in times of trouble — because when the sun shines bright again, we still want to do business together.”
– Assoc. Prof. Dr. Somchanok Phasakonjarat
The professors offered several key recommendations for Thai businesses facing this volatile era:
1. Maintain your breath: Investors should preserve liquidity and avoid short-term debt.
2. For exporters: Strengthen customer relationships so that clients see your products as indispensable, even when prices rise.
3. For brands: Continue to build — even when others pause — because challenging times often create new opportunities for visibility and trust.
Conclusion: From ‘America First’ to ‘Global First’
In his opening remarks, Prof. Dr. Wilert Phuriwat emphasized that the ultimate goal for this generation is not only to become future leaders but to embrace the role of global citizens — individuals who understand diversity and ensure no one is left behind in the world economy.
“We must see the world as belonging to everyone, not just one person.”
– Prof. Dr. Wilert Phuriwat
